tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post2131246496230943091..comments2023-06-07T09:04:36.390-04:00Comments on More Grumbine Science: Three feet of global warmingRobert Grumbinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-49043355732953457642010-02-23T20:15:00.469-05:002010-02-23T20:15:00.469-05:00carrot:
Certainly a messy set of data. It's f...carrot:<br />Certainly a messy set of data. It's for times when eyeballs might miss something that we invented statistics. Still, more time will give us better data, and more obvious conclusions.Robert Grumbinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-842597807928839482010-02-18T16:39:46.503-05:002010-02-18T16:39:46.503-05:00I had a look at the Changnon paper, and I think th...I had a look at the Changnon paper, and I think the data are too noisy to say much of anything, in terms of trends. Of course, that's just my eyeball; I didn't do any formal statistics on it.<br /><br />Maybe some more obvious trend will appear over time, I don't know.carrot eaternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-75040812144655318502010-02-15T12:03:43.848-05:002010-02-15T12:03:43.848-05:00cms: I look at it this way. Snows (and thundersto...cms: I look at it this way. Snows (and thunderstorms) are touchy things. Among other things, this means you don't have a lot of them. That means the signal of having more of the extreme events is not a simple steady increase -- we only have one big snow in a normal year here, and many years it is zero -- the increase shows up as having more years with one big snow, and, now, having a year with two big snows. A little differently, let's say that we do average 1 big snow a year. A 10% increase in severe snows doesn't mean that we get 1.1 such snows. It means that over 10 years, we get 11 big snows. So this year, in a sense, was our turn for getting the additional big snow storm.<br /><br />The storm tracks and rain versus snow are the reason for why you want to look to the regional effects of climate change. Some areas can warm enough to seldom get snow storms, for instance. DC is not one of them. And when we do get snow, we can expect to get the severe storms more frequently.Robert Grumbinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-8788829524810593692010-02-13T12:29:37.372-05:002010-02-13T12:29:37.372-05:00This line of argument certainly would seem to make...This line of argument certainly would seem to make a certain amount of sense. All the climate models depend on co2 to trigger an increase in water vapor to create any significant warming as co2 in and of itself is not potent enough to explain the apparent warming. Hence the question of the effects of clouds has always been problematic. At any rate I quess the question has to be asked what is special about this winter that makes it stand out from the last 10 winters when the degree of warming was more or less the same. One other question, in a warming world one would not be surprised to see more snow given this theory, but the increased heat that this theory depends on would also suggest fewer snow storms in ratio to rain and movement of the tracks closer to the poles. Would it not?cmsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-46190268658352777032010-02-12T13:19:01.808-05:002010-02-12T13:19:01.808-05:00carrot:
You're right that we need to be carefu...carrot:<br />You're right that we need to be careful. I think I stayed on the accurate side of the line -- that we expect more of this kind of thing from climate change. There's a second line to consider, though. Namely, if we spend too much time talking about how any specific storm can't be directly/solely attributed to climate change, it leaves the impression that this storm had <i>nothing</i> to do with climate change. I discovered this the hard way, as my cautious, conservative nature had put me on the wrong side of this line.<br /><br />You're also right to be concerned about regional effects. The Chagnon paper is exactly about that. Our region is one of the ones that can expect more severe snows from climate change.<br /><br />Anon:<br />I'll take this up in a full post, since it's worth a longer consideration. The shorter, which you can check by looking at section 3.4.3 of the IPCC report linked to above, is that neither of your linkages are obviously true. More water vapor (indeed observed) has not lead to more clouds. Nor do more clouds necessarily mean decrease in surface temperature. This latter is obvious if you're in a cold weather climate and compare what happens to temperatures on a cloudy day versus a clear day.<br /><br />There's more to the story than this, which is while it'll be a full post of its own. Thanks for the question.Robert Grumbinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-35588476693428875782010-02-11T22:04:31.633-05:002010-02-11T22:04:31.633-05:00My question is: If more Water Vapor = More clouds,...My question is: If more Water Vapor = More clouds, and more cloud cover = decrease in surface temperatures, then how do you have warming?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-3625718445415505172010-02-11T14:44:39.626-05:002010-02-11T14:44:39.626-05:00Thanks for the links. For now, my only comment is...Thanks for the links. For now, my only comment is that one should be careful when saying "more of weather event x is consistent with climate change." Use the wrong words, and it can quickly sound like "this specific instance of weather event x happened because of climate change", and that's a statement that can not be supported. I think it's difficult to do anything but look at trends. <br /><br />I'm also wary of forgetting about regional patterns. Globally, we expect more precipitation, and yet we also expect some regions to have more droughts. This is clearly complicated, and once people figure out the nuances they'll be left confused about why the simple explanations didn't mention the nuance.<br /><br />John N-G has his own take, which could be of interest. (the URL is messy, but I'm not sure how to clean it up in this format)carrot eaternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-33907587372245838922010-02-11T10:58:52.921-05:002010-02-11T10:58:52.921-05:00Andy:
I think they answer 'climate conspiracy&...Andy:<br />I think they answer 'climate conspiracy'. At least I've heard that answer a time or two.<br /><br />Deech:<br />Glad to see Jeff's article reaching more widely. He's been doing good work for a long time.Robert Grumbinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-29650887484428000442010-02-11T08:48:44.189-05:002010-02-11T08:48:44.189-05:00Glad to see this appear as a lead article on Yahoo...Glad to see <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/08599196229400" rel="nofollow">this</a> appear as a lead article on Yahoo. Looks like Jeff Master's article had traction.Deech56https://www.blogger.com/profile/01075060714218498521noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-988095495709708042010-02-11T00:43:36.581-05:002010-02-11T00:43:36.581-05:00I've been calling it "Climate Change"...I've been calling it "Climate Change" ever since whenever. But some folks seem to think it's a new term invented by climatologists to cover their bases now that global average temperatures aren't going up year-on-year. My favorite response is to ask them what the initials IPCC stand for...Andy Harrisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-37797344253203405252010-02-10T22:14:10.959-05:002010-02-10T22:14:10.959-05:00Thanks for the suggestion. I have the first two b...Thanks for the suggestion. I have the first two books of his Mars trilogy on my 'to read' bookcase. Maybe this will help me to get to reading them. I've heard excellent things about them, and have enjoyed his other writings that I've read.Robert Grumbinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-73462160028245941462010-02-10T21:44:28.765-05:002010-02-10T21:44:28.765-05:00Worth a look:
http://www.amazon.com/Imagining-Abru...Worth a look:<br />http://www.amazon.com/Imagining-Abrupt-Climate-Change-Terraforming/dp/B000AMW5XS<br />by Kim Stanley Robinson (Author)Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.com