tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post2576314140253008504..comments2023-06-07T09:04:36.390-04:00Comments on More Grumbine Science: How not to compute trendsRobert Grumbinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-88172096712375202532011-08-03T17:42:42.195-04:002011-08-03T17:42:42.195-04:00Actually, I think that the data shows the opposite...Actually, I think that the data shows the opposite of what you conclude. I would say that something happened circa 1996 to cause sea ice extent to decrease at a higher rate than pre-1996. The low extent observed in 2011 is real, and not a statistical quirk. The value of September Sea ice extent will be about 4 million km2, not 7 million km2 as you would expect from the long term average..The Village Elliot.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04067573537341001185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-53348118175939955102011-08-03T10:45:56.750-04:002011-08-03T10:45:56.750-04:00Eliot:
Suppose that the opponent really is imagina...Eliot:<br />Suppose that the opponent really is imaginary. Does that change the merit in _not_ cherry picking short periods over which to compute climate trends?<br /><br />Sadly, however, there are indeed people who select 1998 as the starting point for their comments, and did so with even shorter records. See, for example:<br /><br /> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3624242/There-IS-a-problem-with-global-warming...-it-stopped-in-1998.html<br /><br />http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/june2007/180607_b_Climate.htm<br /><br />http://blogs.wsj.com/iainmartin/2009/10/12/bbc-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/<br /><br />http://www.uncommondescent.com/off-topic/scientist-says-global-warming-stopped-in-1998/<br /><br />http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=370001<br /><br />http://hot-topic.co.nz/john-im-only-dancing/<br /><br />And, from only a couple weeks ago:<br />http://www.businessinsider.com/what-ever-happened-to-global-warming-2011-7<br /><br />Or 4 days ago:<br />http://www.thestarphoenix.com/technology/real+scandal/5182959/story.html<br /><br />You can also pursue it readily by selectively searching just on news articles, or just on blogs, as opposed to general web searches. Or, for that matter, books:<br />http://books.google.com/books?id=OOgV_Eu-ASAC&lpg=PA476&dq=warming%20stopped%20in%201998%20-%22bob%20carter%22&pg=PA477#v=onepage&q=warming%20stopped%20in%201998%20-%22bob%20carter%22&f=false<br />-- where they do recognize 1998 as an outlier El Nino year, and instead cherry-pick the even shorter period of 2001-2007.<br /><br />How you describe those authors, and the thousands who have repeated their arguments, is your call. But they do indeed exist. My literary illustration was straight from reality, not my creativity.Robert Grumbinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-91319652326067132052011-08-03T10:25:57.331-04:002011-08-03T10:25:57.331-04:00Robert, I'm uncomfortable with the literary de...Robert, I'm uncomfortable with the literary device you use of refuting an imaginary (and apparently idiotic) opponent. I don't know anyone who thinks that the 1998 spike in global average temperature was due to anything but an El Nino event..The Village Elliot.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04067573537341001185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-59829596104843756112011-07-30T08:51:14.518-04:002011-07-30T08:51:14.518-04:00Hank:
I'll see about getting the paper that Pi...Hank:<br />I'll see about getting the paper that Pielke links to -- Bye, J., K. Fraedrich, E. Kirk, S. Schubert, and X. Zhu (2011), Random walk lengths of about 30 years in global climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2010GL046333, in press. (accepted 7 February 2011)<br /><br />Fraedrich is someone whose work I've seen before, favorably. It'll be interesting to see how much they push a conclusion of "it's all noise" as opposed to merely supporting in a very different way my conclusion that if you want to talk about climate, you need 30 years of data.Robert Grumbinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-70898545624153883302011-07-29T13:09:33.623-04:002011-07-29T13:09:33.623-04:00I see the "random walk" assertion poppin...I see the "random walk" assertion popping up again; will you comment? Here's a couple: <br />http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/02/14/new-paper-random-walk-lengths-of-about-30-years-in-global-climate-by-bye-et-al-2011/<br />http://ocham.blogspot.com/2011/07/global-warming-random-walks.htmlHank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-67084623383850593832011-07-28T10:23:43.194-04:002011-07-28T10:23:43.194-04:00Thanks Bob,
I was able to open the file and I foun...Thanks Bob,<br />I was able to open the file and I found it instructive just to see how you set up the formulae.<br />jgjghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00588440067862480858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-74994618229733013612011-07-27T15:41:44.658-04:002011-07-27T15:41:44.658-04:00Oops. Links are live now.
I think of it more as ...Oops. Links are live now.<br /><br />I think of it more as inviting people to join the game than assigning homework. :-)Robert Grumbinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-58796962820368585442011-07-27T11:53:47.536-04:002011-07-27T11:53:47.536-04:00Hi Bob,
I'm glad you're blogging again and...Hi Bob,<br />I'm glad you're blogging again and assigning homework. <br />I tried the links to the Excel and Openoffice files and get a blogger sign in page that does not take me anywhere. Could you confirm that the files are available?<br />thanks,<br />jgjghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00588440067862480858noreply@blogger.com