tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.comments2023-06-07T09:04:36.390-04:00More Grumbine ScienceRobert Grumbinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comBlogger2244125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-3745500916430617102017-10-12T06:59:55.032-04:002017-10-12T06:59:55.032-04:00Bob,
Off topic, but I seem to recall that when yo...Bob,<br /><br />Off topic, but I seem to recall that when you set up your sea ice site, http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/sh.html<br />you were particularly interested in monitoring polynyas in Antarctica. None appeared, until today! Were you aware of that?Alastairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15152292130415788120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-85277552891349822352017-07-09T12:01:41.956-04:002017-07-09T12:01:41.956-04:00Read also here for what the recent satellite corre...Read also here for what the recent satellite corrections are about:<br />https://moyhu.blogspot.ch/2017/07/new-rss-tlt-v4-comparisons.htmlpphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15737287219806254245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-80561068323904467302017-07-05T21:50:31.961-04:002017-07-05T21:50:31.961-04:00Robert, after my report was on the way to final re...Robert, after my report was on the way to final review, I thought of a slightly different way to visualize the data. I had de-trended the data after finding that the RSS curves had a slight bias compared with UAH, which was the result of different base periods used to calculate the respective series. After calculating the average of each series then subtracting that value, plotting the two series produces a clearer comparison. <br /><br /><a href="https://app.box.com/s/8j8spfmsoe0qovplbo5tqv2szi55fpgs" rel="nofollow">HERE's a link</a> to one of the modified graphs, showing the UAH vs RSS difference for the TMT.E. Swansonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16458400506150142847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-22151165677914227672017-07-02T16:23:31.329-04:002017-07-02T16:23:31.329-04:00What I meant was, looking at the cost is a short c...What I meant was, looking at the cost is a short cut to seeing that there is vastly more than just launching the satellite to getting the data to flow.William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-51662354343083206632017-07-01T22:24:02.653-04:002017-07-01T22:24:02.653-04:00William:
I don't see the short cut. The link...William: <br />I don't see the short cut. The link is to your note on how the launch costs for all satellites is small compared to the cost of the satellites themselves. I'm not sure, though, that that works out across earth-observing satellites specifically. The radarsat launch in the 1990s was, iirc, about 30% the cost of the satellite itself. But that doesn't get high quality data on my desk any faster, regardless of how cheap the launch is.<br /><br />Eric:<br />I hadn't seen your paper, but will follow up on it. Ironically, there's a fair chance that your editor works a couple desks down from me. <br /><br />Spencer+Christy v6 ... I wasn't impressed. Fundamentally, more of the same it seemed to me. But I'd appreciate your thoughts.<br /><br />Entirely coincidentally, RSS (Mears) just released an update to their analysis, accounting for a number of things much like what I mention here. And, also coincidentally, it brings their analysis in to much closer agreement with the surface record.Robert Grumbinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-74847797419798355052017-06-29T09:48:07.442-04:002017-06-29T09:48:07.442-04:00Robert, What are your thoughts on Spencer & Ch...Robert, What are your thoughts on Spencer & Christy's new MSU/AMSU version 6? Did you see my paper on the subject, which was published before their paper?<br /><br />http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0121.1E. Swansonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16458400506150142847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-6291671486387427802017-06-27T08:53:33.304-04:002017-06-27T08:53:33.304-04:00> launching them and waiting for lovely data t...> launching them and waiting for lovely data to flow<br /><br />There's a useful short-cut for that, in terms of spending. See e.g. http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2016/08/29/launch-spending/ (me quoting the Economist).William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-52241017618345008232017-02-21T00:14:41.858-05:002017-02-21T00:14:41.858-05:00You missed a lot of DOD and DOE labs, but the poin...You missed a lot of DOD and DOE labs, but the point is well taken. Also people at a lot of labs live in different states than the labs. Look for an update tomorrow.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-74242979383595956062016-06-14T17:25:58.408-04:002016-06-14T17:25:58.408-04:00Thanks for the references Alastair. Looks good. I&...Thanks for the references Alastair. Looks good. I'll look forward to Saussure in translation. <br /><br />Weart is more negative about meteorologists than warranted. It was from that community that I discovered Chandra in the first place, and that was 30 years ago. Robert Grumbinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-26961630439045019182016-06-13T01:29:33.332-04:002016-06-13T01:29:33.332-04:00Hi Bob,
I took your advice and read some original...Hi Bob,<br /><br />I took your advice and read some original papers and books. Not only that, I have followed William Connolley's example and translated some (Swiss) French into English, viz. Chapter 35 of H-B de Saussure's "Travels in the Alps", and his letter to the <i>Journal de Paris</i> which can be found here: https://sites.google.com/site/saussureproject/<br /><br />I've also read several Dover books including: <br />Chandrasekhar, S. Radiative Transfer. New York: Dover Publications Inc., 1960. http://archive.org/details/RadiativeTransfer which you recommended, but Spencer Weart says "It was too subtle and complex for meteorologists.(7)They mostly ignored the astrophysical literature and worked out their own shortcut methods, equations that they could reduce to a sequence of arithmetic exercises to get rough numerical results."<br />Menzel, Donald Howard. Selected Papers on the Transfer of Radiation. Dover Publications, 1966 which contains Schwarzschild's derivation of his equation of radiative transfer, which is still used in all models today. It also contains E. A. Milne's explanation of LTE.<br />Planck, Max. The Theory of Heat Radiation. Translated by Morton Masius. 2nd ed. New York: Dover Publications, Inc., 1959. https://www.gutenberg.org/files/40030/40030-pdf.pdf. which describes Kirchhoff's universal law, used by Schwarzschild and by Chandrasekhar, and how it needs a speck of carbon to make it work!<br /><br />All very useful in my investigations into radiative transfer. Thank you.<br />Alastairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15152292130415788120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-90256630024258641532016-05-06T05:12:47.007-04:002016-05-06T05:12:47.007-04:00Satellites and space probes are like people, infan...Satellites and space probes are like people, infant mortality is a problem (as in crash and burn or never wake up) they perform so well that they often exceed their design lifetime. Indeed, this is often a problem as a working satellite is expensive to operate and the choice becomes to turn one off and launch a new one or to keep on operating the old one.<br /><br />NASA has on occasion offered operations of some satellites for free to any organization that really cares. The Mars Rovers are examples of long operating probes that have a constituency which does not allow them to be turned off.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-17733735766063500202016-05-01T07:07:08.244-04:002016-05-01T07:07:08.244-04:00I'm from the UK Bob, and hence not entirely au...I'm from the UK Bob, and hence not entirely au fait with how to go about making US presidential election predictions! However I did read this a while ago:<br /><br /><a href="http://spacenews.com/senate-spending-bill-backs-house-recommendation-to-shelve-dmsp-f20/" rel="nofollow">http://spacenews.com/senate-spending-bill-backs-house-recommendation-to-shelve-dmsp-f20/</a><br /><br />Would you agree that "The Air Force has not properly managed its space weather program"?<br /><br />Jim Hunthttp://greatwhitecon.info/blognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-51403454858039778772016-04-27T17:49:27.991-04:002016-04-27T17:49:27.991-04:00Possibility, sure. But it's a decision in Con...Possibility, sure. But it's a decision in Congress (which ordered the mothballing) rather than the Defense Department, so make your own election year prediction as to probability and timing.Robert Grumbinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-26766792719746794252016-04-27T06:20:26.029-04:002016-04-27T06:20:26.029-04:00Do you suppose there is now a possibility that F-2...Do you suppose there is now a possibility that F-20 will be un-mothballed?Jim Hunthttp://greatwhitecon.info/blognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-74713670382917791972016-04-25T17:42:28.025-04:002016-04-25T17:42:28.025-04:00Yes, a continuing issue. Back in the 90's (al...Yes, a continuing issue. Back in the 90's (also) there was a representative in congress of the same opinion -- we didn't need the National Weather Service because he got his weather from the Weather Channel. This is a bit ironic, given that the Weather Channel is quite up front about the fact that they get their information from NOAA / National Weather Service.Robert Grumbinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-44165930688778270002016-04-25T16:44:44.671-04:002016-04-25T16:44:44.671-04:00http://www.opb.org/news/article/jane-lubchencos-te...http://www.opb.org/news/article/jane-lubchencos-teachable-moment-as-noaa-boss/Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-86611698412400758372016-04-19T12:23:52.303-04:002016-04-19T12:23:52.303-04:00How about the wave equation when it applies to QBO...How about the wave equation when it applies to QBO?<br /><br />Most climate scientists apparently deduce the QBO cycles are a natural response, but I can verify that they are clearly the result of a forced response. In that case the details of the wave equation are irrelevant, as the forced response is essentially a scaling and frequency modulation of the forced input:<br /><br />http://contextearth.com/2016/03/06/forced-versus-natural-response-not-a-secret/<br /><br />This is a very critical "Chapter 1" analysis technique that may be missing from climate science course material. <br /><br />With some more work, ENSO may be proven to also be a forced response system, much simpler than a coupled ocean-atmosphere natural response.@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-91744058200235645352016-04-13T18:28:47.539-04:002016-04-13T18:28:47.539-04:00Sorry WHUT, thought I'd approved the post this...Sorry WHUT, thought I'd approved the post this morning.<br /><br />Wave equations are second order mathematically. I guess you mean first order physics instead?<br /><br />Climate folks don't ignore waves. One of the standard texts for geophysical fluid dynamics, a central field for climate dynamics, is Adrian E. Gill's _Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics_, 1982, Academic Press. He explains or examines practically everything by way of waves, and is not unique in this.<br /><br />For a specifically equatorial climate feature, consider the El Niño - Southern Oscillation. One of the standard educational starting points in examining it is to look at the ocean and consider it in terms of being driven by an eastward propagating Kelvin wave, and westward propagating Rossby wave. This also shows why you won't hear about this unless you're in an introductory geophysical fluid dynamics class. The real ENSO is fundamentally coupled between the ocean and atmosphere. These ocean waves are strongly modified by the atmosphere -- to the point that you can't make a good El Niño prediction looking only at the ocean. So when you see a modern discussion of ENSO, you'll see much more complex things than the waves. <br /><br />The Kelvin and Rossby waves point to one of the lovely complexities of the climate system. As you note, the coriolis force is zero at the equator. But neither wave would exist if the earth didn't rotate. Kelvin waves require a wall. Normally it is a physical wall, like a coast line. But the line where coriolis goes to zero (the equator) also works. But coriolis also has to be nonzero elsewhere for the wave to exist. Rossby waves exist only on a rotating spheroid (the coriolis force has to change with latitude).<br /><br />But, speaking of Rossby waves, they were also used for a time as a means of weather prediction. And some of the language from Rossby wave dynamics is still used. Unfortunately, reality again turns out to be too complex for this simple approach. iirc, the last time a new model based on this approach was implemented for forecast guidance, it was in the late 1950s, the 'equivalent barotropic' model.Robert Grumbinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-11380067501322218472016-04-13T11:08:54.544-04:002016-04-13T11:08:54.544-04:00Along those same lines, a first-order equation tha...Along those same lines, a first-order equation that really matters for hydrodynamics is the wave equation. If you consider that along the equator, the coriolis effects cancel out, then you are left with is a surprisingly simple formulation. Climate scientists make a mistake when they bypass the simple first-order physics to explain what they think are complex behaviors.@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-88330695385272722492016-02-03T02:23:17.950-05:002016-02-03T02:23:17.950-05:00FYI, this is an apparently unpublished white paper...FYI, this is an apparently unpublished white paper by P.A.Semi on deriving the Chandler wobble from planetary torques (little impact from the moon).<br />http://semi.gurroa.cz/Chandler/Chandler.html<br /><br />It looks like he claims it is mainly due to the Jupiter-Earth meet frequency -- 400 days.@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-6872493794723450202016-02-02T14:16:57.504-05:002016-02-02T14:16:57.504-05:00"Here is my take on a mechanism for QBO
http...<i>"Here is my take on a mechanism for QBO <br />http://contextearth.com/2016/01/27/possible-luni-solar-tidal-mechanism-for-the-chandler-wobble/"<br /></i><br /><br />I messed that up, it should read "Here is my take on a mechanism for the Chandler wobble".<br /><br />The QBO got inserted there because the same mechanism that is driving QBO may also be driving the wobble, which is the Draconic lunar cycle.<br /><br />The Chandler wobble has a period of 1.185 years while the QBO is 2.37, half as fast. This can be reconciled if one considers a symmetric (North vs South) declination forcing versus an asymmetric forcing.<br /><br />Of course correlation does not equal causation, but this is one of those cases in which an agreement with a plausible theory does not allow one to rule out that theory. For example, if those numbers were just a little off, one could rule out the lunar cycle as a forcing mechanism. <br /><br />There is also this recent paper on finding a correlation between upper atmospheric rainfall and the Lunar cycle "Rainfall variations induced by the lunar gravitational atmospheric tide and their implications for the relationship between tropical rainfall and humidity", Kohyama & Wallace http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL067342/full<br /><br />What motivates this analysis is the confliction between the moon being responsible for as significant an effect as oceanic tides, but not much else. Have scientists simply have not looked hard enough?@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-81310812726677669462016-01-28T01:58:34.868-05:002016-01-28T01:58:34.868-05:00Here is my take on a mechanism for QBO
http://con...Here is my take on a mechanism for QBO <br />http://contextearth.com/2016/01/27/possible-luni-solar-tidal-mechanism-for-the-chandler-wobble/<br /><br />A seasonally aliased Draconic lunar cycle matches the 433 day Chandler wobble closely.@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-32878383716026559252016-01-25T01:45:00.480-05:002016-01-25T01:45:00.480-05:00The set of luni-solar periods that contribute to Q...The set of luni-solar periods that contribute to QBO:<br /><br />http://forum.azimuthproject.org/discussion/comment/15128/#Comment_15128@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-30880688233616146962016-01-25T01:44:07.949-05:002016-01-25T01:44:07.949-05:00The set of luni-solar factors that contribute to Q...The set of luni-solar factors that contribute to QBO:<br /><br />https://forum.azimuthproject.org/discussion/comment/15128/#Comment_15128@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-44292262523256113942016-01-23T23:18:28.189-05:002016-01-23T23:18:28.189-05:00Given your interest in the arctic and sea ice, I&#...Given your interest in the arctic and sea ice, I'm not sure if you ever visited Wayne Davidson's site. If you haven't you might find his work interesting; basically using the optics of temperature inversions and/or atmospheric aerosols to measure the changing arctic.<br /><br />I don't know where the best place to start is - but <a href="http://eh2r.blogspot.ca/2015/04/annual-springsummer-projection-by.html" rel="nofollow">last spring's prediction page</a> has lots of interesting images. The 'toboggan sun' images and comparisons are worth looking at.Kevin O'Neillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06692943768484857724noreply@blogger.com