tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post5545734344525184412..comments2023-06-07T09:04:36.390-04:00Comments on More Grumbine Science: Forecast EvaluationRobert Grumbinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-50741700114443667242015-02-23T19:22:53.375-05:002015-02-23T19:22:53.375-05:00@Everett: somehow I got about 10 copies of your co...@Everett: somehow I got about 10 copies of your comment. <br /><br />@mmm: Well, you're right. But also more elaborate than I wanted to start.<br /><br />Robert Grumbinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-53490748963237038952015-02-19T10:22:34.776-05:002015-02-19T10:22:34.776-05:00Ah, but a truly good forecast should not only give...Ah, but a truly good forecast should not only give you a best estimate, but a range, and allow you to apply your personal decision factors. Eg., <br /><br />"61 +- 2 degrees": best estimate is above 60, but given you hate being cold, you'd probably wear gloves. It isn't the forecast that should hedge, it is the user. <br /><br />(also I'd say that the key comparison is not "is it positive" but "can I beat the best naive strategy". And in this case, the best naive strategy is, "always wear gloves", with a payoff of 0.55*+1 + 0.45*-1, for a score of +0.1. At less than that score, the forecast is not useful)<br /><br />-MMMAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-19135590798908378702015-02-19T09:11:43.127-05:002015-02-19T09:11:43.127-05:00Bob,
The people I once knew (some I still know bu...Bob,<br /><br />The people I once knew (some I still know but its been awhile) who do a similar thing with energy based water wave models (Fleet Numerics real time and nowcast) and the USACE (hindcasts) pretty much have the same problems in terms of spatial-temporal drift (mostly spatial AFAIK). I'd like to think they get the long term statistics close to reality.<br /><br />Haven't been a runner in like two decades. Wind, temperature, humidity and time of day was most important, tried to get the clothing right, but you can always take something off until your almost naked, can't do the converse, so it was always a good idea to be a bit conservative (more clothing) versus the opposite.Everett F Sargenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00201577558036010680noreply@blogger.com