tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post8386862946555877048..comments2023-06-07T09:04:36.390-04:00Comments on More Grumbine Science: Too-early consideration of sea ice estimatesRobert Grumbinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10783453972811796911noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-65803730507558115042011-10-03T12:54:02.041-04:002011-10-03T12:54:02.041-04:00Results are coming in ...
I offered 4 predictions...Results are coming in ...<br /><br />I offered 4 predictions about September ice back in April based on simple Gompertz curves. Here's how those came out so far:<br /><br />NSIDC extent -- predicted 4.4, observed 4.6<br />UB extent -- predicted 4.6, observed 4.6<br />NSIDC area -- predicted 3.1, observed 3.2<br />PIOMAS volume -- predicted 5.2, observed ___<br /><br />(I think my PIOMAS estimate is going to end up rather high, but we'll know soon.)<br /><br />Starting already with a guess about next year, over at Neven's:<br />http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/10/september-2011-sea-ice-extent-looking-ahead.html<br /><br />And also a new graphic comparing the 5 major extent & area time series:<br />http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/10/september-2011-sea-ice-extent-looking-back.htmlL Hamiltonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5337555368793819627.post-34221623726506049222011-09-01T21:14:29.293-04:002011-09-01T21:14:29.293-04:00Put in terms of simple trends:
* The linear-declin...Put in terms of simple trends:<br />* The linear-decline prediction, a September NSIDC mean of 5.23, is already too high. Sea ice is declining at faster-than-linear rates.<br />* The quadratic-decline prediction, 4.63, looks much better -- but even so might be too high. NSIDC extent in late August fell below 4.7.<br />* The Gompertz-decline prediction I suggested in April, 4.44, still looks like a contender to me.<br />But we'll see.L. Hamiltonnoreply@blogger.com