Last week was hiatus because I was working on things that didn't quite make it to completion. This includes evaluating last year's sea ice estimates (Alastair won both his bets with me so is now even), and writing up this year's estimates (all our estimates are lower than last year this time, but not as low as last year's observations).
This week, it is that I away from home and had a hard computer failure. I don' like long typing on a touch screen, which is what I'm doing at the moment, so twitter is about it this week. @rgrumbine.
See you next Monday, when I'll hang out the 'question place' shingle.
I was just lucky! I would have made a similar projection for each of the previous three years and been wrong, since last year was the first time since 2007 that the record was broken. I am tempted to quit now because I think that betting on the sea ice is like betting on horse racing. It is a mug's game.
ReplyDeleteOTOH, since it took several years after the last record melt for a record it would seem very likely that it will be several years before the next record. That seems to be what most people think. But that would be a safe bet and with low odds.
For a high return it is better to bet on a new record. Looking at your maps of sea ice concentration there is a large area of low concentration ice stretching from the Barents to the Bering seas, and passing near the North Pole. In the past, areas of low concentration ice in June have disappeared in September. If that occurs this year then not only will we have a new record, the North Pole will be outside the ice edge for the first time!