Last week was hiatus because I was working on things that didn't quite make it to completion. This includes evaluating last year's sea ice estimates (Alastair won both his bets with me so is now even), and writing up this year's estimates (all our estimates are lower than last year this time, but not as low as last year's observations).
This week, it is that I away from home and had a hard computer failure. I don' like long typing on a touch screen, which is what I'm doing at the moment, so twitter is about it this week. @rgrumbine.
See you next Monday, when I'll hang out the 'question place' shingle.
skip to main |
skip to sidebar
Thoughts and notes on science from another blogging Grumbine.
Welcome
I'll be trying what seems to be an unusual approach in blogs -- writing to be inclusive of students in middle school and jr. high*, as well as teachers and parents (whether for their own information or to help their children). To that end, comments will have to pass a stricter standard than I'd apply for an all-comers site. It shouldn't be onerous, just keep to the topic and use clean language.
I expect it to be fun for all, however, as you really can get quite far in understanding the world, even climate, by understanding this sort of fundamental. If I get too much less fundamental, let me know where I went astray.
* Ok, I concede that not many middle school students will get everything. Even a fair number of adults will find some parts hard to follow. Still, some middle school kids will have fun. And almost everyone will follow a number of posts just fine.
Please see the comment policy for details. And the link policy for details about that. The latter is more open than you might expect.
I expect it to be fun for all, however, as you really can get quite far in understanding the world, even climate, by understanding this sort of fundamental. If I get too much less fundamental, let me know where I went astray.
* Ok, I concede that not many middle school students will get everything. Even a fair number of adults will find some parts hard to follow. Still, some middle school kids will have fun. And almost everyone will follow a number of posts just fine.
Please see the comment policy for details. And the link policy for details about that. The latter is more open than you might expect.
Translate
Posts
Share this blog
Blog Archive
Science Links
Blogroll
-
-
-
-
Operationalizing Climate Science3 days ago
-
Historicism4 days ago
-
-
-
-
Climate Rocks Again9 months ago
-
-
-
-
Labels
doing science
(66)
project folder
(53)
sea ice
(46)
meta
(40)
being a scientist
(31)
mathematics
(31)
weeding sources
(30)
climate
(29)
misc
(23)
questions
(23)
modelling
(21)
reading
(21)
climate change
(16)
observations
(14)
weather
(14)
health
(13)
blogs
(12)
politics
(12)
running
(12)
concepts
(11)
data
(11)
astronomy
(10)
history
(9)
science
(9)
philosophy
(8)
temperature
(7)
young scientists
(7)
greenhouse
(6)
oceanography
(6)
antarctic
(5)
co2
(5)
genealogy
(5)
ice
(5)
Arctic
(4)
atmosphere
(4)
pseudoscience
(4)
sea level
(4)
spectating
(4)
sst
(4)
biology
(3)
experiments
(3)
ice age
(3)
media
(3)
recommendations
(3)
scientists
(3)
technology
(3)
travel
(3)
computers
(2)
earthquake
(2)
elements
(2)
engineering
(2)
evolution
(2)
ice sheet
(2)
international
(2)
news
(2)
opportunities
(2)
prediction
(2)
unreliable
(2)
clouds
(1)
faqs
(1)
lakes
(1)
laurentide
(1)
numerics
(1)
research discussion
(1)
satellites
(1)
About Me
- Robert Grumbine
- In my day job I work on the oceanography, meteorology, climatology, glaciology end of my science interests, but I'm interested in everything, science or not. So I've also been on stage in a production of Comedy of Errors, run an ultramarathon, and been to Epidaurus, Greece, to see a production of Euripides' Iphigenia among the Taurians Prior to starting the current job, I was a post-doc in oceanography in the UCAR ocean modelling program, and earned my doctorate from the Department of the Geophysical Sciences at the University of Chicago (1989). My undergraduate degree involved Applied Math, Engineering, Astrophysics, and Glaciology. Of course I don't speak for my employer, whoever that may be.
1 comment:
I was just lucky! I would have made a similar projection for each of the previous three years and been wrong, since last year was the first time since 2007 that the record was broken. I am tempted to quit now because I think that betting on the sea ice is like betting on horse racing. It is a mug's game.
OTOH, since it took several years after the last record melt for a record it would seem very likely that it will be several years before the next record. That seems to be what most people think. But that would be a safe bet and with low odds.
For a high return it is better to bet on a new record. Looking at your maps of sea ice concentration there is a large area of low concentration ice stretching from the Barents to the Bering seas, and passing near the North Pole. In the past, areas of low concentration ice in June have disappeared in September. If that occurs this year then not only will we have a new record, the North Pole will be outside the ice edge for the first time!
Post a Comment